Scotland's population forecast to go into decline

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Scotland's population is projected to begin to fall before the end of the decade, experts have forecast

National Records of Scotland (NRS) estimates that the number of people in the country will peak in 2028 at 5.48 million and then fall by 1.8% by 2045.

The drop is driven in part by a reduction in net migration - the number of people entering Scotland minus the number of people leaving.

NRS published the figures in its annual population review.

Net migration peaked in 2007 at 33,000 but is predicted to remain below 20,000 in coming years after Brexit ended EU citizens' rights to move freely in and out of the UK.

On Tuesday, the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) predicted that Scotland's population could fall by up to 900,000 over the next 50 years.

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“Birth rates have been falling steadily for a number of years. Lower birth rates are the main reason these projections are lower than previous ones. “Life expectancy has stalled since 2012-2014 and COVID-19 has had some impact.